After McLaren’s double disqualification in Las Vegas, the title fight has tightened dramatically: Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, and Max Verstappen enter Lusail separated by a razor-thin margin and this weekend, the stakes could not be higher.
For Norris, Qatar represents a golden opportunity to close out the championship. For Piastri and Verstappen, it is the final chance to push the title showdown into Abu Dhabi. At Lusail International Circuit, every strategic decision, every pit stop and every lap will count.
A Unique Challenge: Mandatory Two-Stop Strategy
Qatar is set to deliver one of the most unpredictable weekends of the season. Regulations enforce a mandatory two-stop race, with no tyre allowed to exceed 25 laps of use. This ruling will influence the entire weekend, from practice sessions to the Sprint and the Grand Prix itself.
Lusail is notorious for high tyre wear, meaning teams will prioritise saving medium and hard compounds for race day. This restriction will limit available long-run data, adding another layer of complexity to the strategy.
This could give Red Bull a subtle advantage. With the flexibility to use Yuki Tsunoda creatively in the Sprint for additional tyre data, Red Bull may enter Sunday with more information than McLaren who, fighting for both titles, will be reluctant to expose either driver to risky strategies.
McLaren Under the Microscope
All eyes will be on McLaren after the floor-wear disqualifications in Las Vegas. However, Lusail’s smooth surface means the team is unlikely to face the same issue. The track is flowing, modern and largely bump-free conditions that naturally suit the MCL39’s aerodynamic platform.
Last weekend’s setback was most likely a calculation error rather than a fundamental flaw; a few extra laps in DRS may have saved Norris’ race. Qatar should be a clean reset.
McLaren’s strengths, tyre preservation, long-duration corners and mid-speed stability are perfectly aligned with Lusail’s layout. The only real threat? Wind.
As seen in Hungary and Azerbaijan, gusty desert wind can destabilise the McLaren more than most. A calmer evening favours Norris and Piastri; a gusty one brings jeopardy.
Red Bull: Fast Where It Matters
Red Bull head into Qatar as the most likely challengers. The RB21 excels in Sector 3, where straight-line performance and DRS efficiency are decisive. If Verstappen can place himself ahead in the early phase, he has a realistic chance of controlling the race from the front, especially if the race splinters strategically due to tyre limits.
The final corner remains a weakness for Red Bull, but Verstappen’s pace on the straights could compensate. Expect Red Bull to be firmly in the fight for pole, victory, and —depending on Norris’ result— the championship outcome.
Ferrari to Rebound?
Ferrari has reasons to be optimistic. Tracks with long sequences of medium-speed direction changes —Hungary’s middle sector, the Austin ‘S’ section— have historically suited the SF-25.
With its smooth asphalt and sweeping radii, Lusail could be one of Ferrari’s stronger circuits in the late season. If setup execution is clean, Ferrari should be the third force, close enough to punish any errors from McLaren or Red Bull.
Mercedes: Strong in Qualifying, Vulnerable in Race Trim
Mercedes is expected to shine over one lap, with George Russell traditionally strong around Lusail. However, over race distance, where tyre degradation defines the competitive order, Mercedes may struggle to match the top three.
Their performance ceiling likely makes them the fourth-fastest team in race pace, barring unexpected chaos.
Midfield Outlook
Racing Bulls – Best of the Midfield
High-speed corners and dynamic direction changes favour Racing Bulls; they should lead the midfield battle.
Sauber – A Quiet Threat
Long, flowing corners have historically suited Sauber, notably Spain and Silverstone. Expect them to fight firmly for points.
Williams – A Step Back
Williams’ car concept suffers on long-duration corners. A tougher weekend is expected, but P8–P10 remains possible with perfect execution.
Haas – Pace, But Strategy Limits
Haas’ early-season porpoising issues in high-speed corners remain a concern. With tyre life limited by regulation, their strongest weapon, tyre management, is neutralised. Qualifying performance, especially from Bearman, will be crucial.
Aston Martin – One-Lap Hope, Race-Day Pain
Aston Martin may appear competitive in qualifying, but over a race distance, they are expected to fade. Straight-line weakness and tyre wear remain unresolved concerns.
Alpine – Another Difficult Weekend
With downforce sensitivity high and straight-line efficiency crucial, this is arguably Alpine’s worst track of the closing season.
Championship Pressure at Its Peak
It is a Sprint Weekend, meaning teams have almost no time to perfect their setups. In a title fight this tight, precision is everything and mistakes will be punished instantly.
With the mandatory two-stop strategy, tyre limits, desert winds and one of the most physically demanding circuits on the calendar, Qatar is poised to shape the outcome of the championship.
Paddock Queen’s Qatar GP Top 10 Prediction
- Lando Norris
- Max Verstappen
- Oscar Piastri
- Charles Leclerc
- George Russell
- Kimi Antonelli
- Carlos Sainz
- Isack Hadjar
- Lewis Hamilton
- Nico Hülkenberg
What Are Your Predictions?
With the championship on the line and a circuit built for drama, the 2025 Qatar Grand Prix promises a spectacular showdown under the lights.
Share your top-10 predictions in the comments.
Catch up with the 2025 Qatar Grand Prix Sprint Qualifying action here.
