The 2025 Formula 1 season comes down to one final, breathtaking showdown. Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri arrive in Abu Dhabi separated by a handful of points, each still capable of becoming World Champion. It is the first time since 2010 that more than two drivers enter the finale with a mathematical shot at the crown and the Yas Marina Circuit, home to unforgettable deciders such as the 2021 duel between Verstappen and Hamilton, is once again ready to write history.
With the title on the line, how do the performance trends stack up? Let’s break down what to expect from each sector, each team, and the fight for the ultimate prize.
Single-Lap Pace: Who Has the Edge?
Sector 1 – A Tight Opening Battle
Turn 1 remains one of Yas Marina’s trickiest corners, with track limits proving decisive in previous years, Charles Leclerc’s lap deletion in 2024 being a prime example. This corner naturally suits McLaren, whose strength in medium-speed changes of direction should help them open the lap strongly.
The next two sweepers are flat-out for most of the grid, meaning gaps will be minimal. McLaren holds a slim theoretical edge, but Red Bull and Mercedes will be extremely close. Ferrari should be within a few hundredths, too.
Sector 1 ranking prediction:
- McLaren
- Red Bull
- Mercedes
- Ferrari (but extremely close)
Sector 2 – Mercedes Territory
The long straight followed by heavy braking and two 90-degree corners is the sweet spot for Mercedes. Their traction, braking consistency and strong straight-line performance should allow them to top Sector 2, with Red Bull close behind, thanks to their efficiency over long-radius acceleration zones.
This is McLaren’s weakest area. Their lower top speed and traction struggles will challenge them, unless they choose a lower-downforce rear wing to defend on the straights. Ferrari may pressure McLaren here depending on setup and form.
Sector 2 ranking prediction:
- Mercedes
- Red Bull
- McLaren
- Ferrari (though potentially stronger than expected)
Sector 3 – McLaren’s Stronghold
The final sector is where McLaren comes alive: long, flowing corners, medium-high speed arcs, and precision entries. This plays directly into the MCL39’s aerodynamic strengths. Expect McLaren to build their biggest gap here.
Red Bull should be the consistent all-rounder, competitive across each part of the lap, while Mercedes tends to fade in longer-radius curves. Ferrari, depending on setup and balance, could be closer than recent form suggests, but they enter the weekend with question marks after Qatar.
Sector 3 ranking prediction:
- McLaren
- Red Bull
- Mercedes
- Ferrari
Pole Position Outlook
A Norris–Piastri–Verstappen fight for pole looks inevitable, with George Russell as the major disruptor. His speed through Sector 2 could place him between the title contenders and dramatically reshape the championship order.
Qualifying will be tense, extremely tight, and unforgiving and mistakes will be punished in a heartbeat.
Race Pace Expectations
McLaren – Favourites on Paper
McLaren dominated here last season, and the circuit layout continues to favour their strengths with long, arcing medium-speed corners, stable tyre management, minimal bumps and a dominant final sector.
Their main weakness is straight-line speed, meaning defending position at the start and after pit stops will be critical. If Norris or Piastri lock out the front row, McLaren can control the race. If they start behind Red Bull or Mercedes, life becomes far more complicated.
Red Bull – Verstappen Must Win
Red Bull struggled at Yas Marina last year due to front-end weakness, and similar challenges may persist. However, their tyre management and adaptability over the race distance remain elite.
Verstappen must win to stay in the title fight, which makes qualifying position crucial. If he starts on the front row, strategy could swing the race in his favour.
Mercedes – The Wild Card
Mercedes’ strong single-lap speed, particularly in Sector 2, makes Russell a key disruptor. If he or Antonelli splits the McLarens or Verstappen on the grid, the entire championship dynamic shifts.
In race trim, Mercedes’ smooth tyre usage in dropping temperatures (day-to-night transition) could be decisive, passing a Mercedes may prove extremely difficult.
Ferrari – Looking to Recover
After a disappointing Qatar weekend, Ferrari should rebound thanks to fewer bumps and a more predictable surface. Leclerc could spring a qualifying surprise, but sustained race pace remains the question mark.
Midfield Picture
Aston Martin: Shock form in Qatar could carry over, especially with their strong cornering package.
Williams: Big step forward in Qatar; could fight for points again.
Racing Bulls: Similar competitiveness expected as Isack Hadjar may reach Q3.
Sauber: Quietly strong; a points finish is within reach.
Haas: Good tyre life may help late in the race; single-lap pace will limit them.
Alpine: Likely to struggle, a season-long theme.
Championship Stakes
The permutations are simple:
- Norris wants clean air and track position.
- Piastri needs a perfect weekend to overturn the deficit.
- Verstappen must win — anything less is not enough.
With three drivers fighting for glory, a mixed-up qualifying session or an early-race duel could alter the championship narrative instantly.
All signs point to a spectacular finale at Yas Marina: close qualifying, tense tyre strategies, day-to-night conditions, and three title contenders separated by tiny margins. McLaren hold the theoretical edge but Red Bull and Mercedes both have the tools to disrupt the championship bid.
One race. Three contenders. One champion.
Who do you think will lift the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship trophy? Share your predictions in the comments.
