The 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix is set to unfold under some of the coldest conditions ever seen in Formula 1, with race-day temperatures expected to hover around 12°C. In a championship fight this tight, even the weather becomes a decisive player.
Last year, these icy conditions completely destabilised McLaren. At one point, they were over 25 seconds behind Mercedes and 15 seconds off the nearest competitor, highlighting just how punishing this circuit can be when tyre warm-up becomes a nightmare. While McLaren believes they will be stronger this year thanks to Pirelli’s revised tyres, even Andrea Stella admitted the team remains cautious. Even if McLaren claw back 0.2s per lap, they still risk sitting 7–8 seconds behind their closest rivals over a full stint. With long straights, tight acceleration zones and low-grip conditions, Las Vegas remains a circuit that fundamentally challenges McLaren’s strengths.
The real power shift, however, may come from Mercedes. On paper, this is a weekend that suits them perfectly: low temperatures, heavy traction demands, short corner sequences, and a bumpy street-circuit layout. The 2025 Mercedes is vastly improved in rear stability, traction and straight-line efficiency compared to last year’s car – the exact characteristics required to thrive at the Las Vegas Strip Circuit. In 2024, they dominated because they were the only team able to generate tyre temperature. This year, while that specific advantage is reduced, the natural DNA of the W15’s successor aligns beautifully with the demands of Las Vegas. It would not be surprising to see Mercedes in full contention for victory.
Yet the team most capable of taking the fight to them remains Red Bull. Their low-downforce package is among the strongest on the grid, their top-speed figures are consistently impressive, and Max Verstappen arrives with a fresh power unit – a crucial advantage on these endless straights. More importantly, Red Bull has made meaningful progress in tyre management throughout the season. Early-year struggles, such as Canada, have gradually faded as Verstappen and the team refined their approach. Should anyone disrupt Mercedes’ weekend, it is likely to be Red Bull – especially if they are willing to take strategic risks.
Ferrari, meanwhile, enters Las Vegas with mixed expectations. Although their pace has improved in recent rounds, the SF-25 still lacks ultimate traction and suffers in colder conditions. Ferrari’s profile increasingly resembles McLaren’s in terms of what the car needs to perform: warmth, grip and smooth corner flow. With the Strip Circuit offering none of these, Ferrari may find themselves behind Mercedes and Red Bull over long-run pace, even if their top speed keeps them competitive in qualifying.
Further down the order, Williams stand out as potential dark horses. The circuit’s long straights, sharp traction zones, low temperatures and minimal tyre degradation align directly with Williams’ strengths. In these conditions, Carlos Sainz could well produce one of the surprise performances of the weekend. Aston Martin, should they avoid reliability gremlins, may also trouble the upper midfield. Alpine remains locked into development for next season and are likely to struggle once more.
Breaking the track down by sector, the first sector features long straights and short corners – ideal territory for Red Bull and Mercedes. McLaren can be competitive here only if they master tyre warm-up instantly. The second sector is more technical, with chicane sequences and medium-speed corners where traction becomes vital. This should be Mercedes territory, with Ferrari potentially close behind. The final sector, defined by its vast straight and heavy braking zone, will favour whichever team can unleash the highest top speed: Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren.
One thing is certain, with cold temperatures, unpredictable tyre behaviour, long DRS zones and a championship in the balance, the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix promises to be a dramatic, unpredictable and strategically volatile race.
The Paddock Queen’s Las Vegas GP Top 10 Prediction:
1) Lando Norris
2) Max Verstappen
3) George Russell
4) Oscar Piastri
5) Liam Lawson
6) Carlos Sainz
7) Isack Hadjar
8) Charles Leclerc
9) Fernando Alonso
10) Nico Hülkenberg
What do you think the top 10 will look like in Las Vegas? Share your predictions in the comments.
Catch up with 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix qualifying highlights here.
