The tight, fast streets of Baku are calling once again! Let’s walk through what could unfold at the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix and why this weekend has all the ingredients for another thriller.
Last Year’s Drama
We were treated to a cracker of a race last season. Piastri, Leclerc and Pérez shadowed each other all race long, before that memorable clash between Pérez and Sainz. If Baku taught us anything, it’s that strategy, straight-line speed and cool heads decide the day here.
Who Looks Strong This Year?
McLaren returns with one of their biggest weaknesses, which is the straight-line speed, under the spotlight, yet Baku’s long flat-out sections and heavy braking zones could actually play into their hands thanks to their tyre management.
Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc loves this place and remains devastating over one lap, while Verstappen and the updated Red Bull are expected to join the fight. Expect a three or even four-way scrap for victory. Leclerc’s qualifying performance will be critical; on race pace alone, the field seems to rate Red Bull and McLaren just ahead of Ferrari after the latest updates. But one monster lap from Leclerc could shuffle the order.
Tyres and Strategy – McLaren’s Trump Card
Two big question marks hang over this weekend, both of which could suit McLaren. Pirelli is bringing the softest compounds – C4, C5 and C6 – to Baku. Although the team hasn’t always loved the softest rubber, the track’s brutal wear on rear tyres could swing things in their favour. Last year, McLaren showed how a blend of smart management and consistent pace can win the long game even from behind.
Tyres here degrade badly; the undercut can be worth up to three seconds. Even if McLaren loses out in qualifying or the opening laps, they could make the difference on Sunday by running longer and fresher. Expect a tactical race rather than an overtaking free-for-all.
Sector Strengths
Baku is a mix of Monza’s top speed and Singapore’s twists. McLaren should shine in the middle sector, with its traction zones and slower corners, areas where they had little to exploit in Italy. That could offset rivals’ gains in sectors one and three.
Red Bull’s Enigma
Their dominant Monza win may have flattered their true form, but the memories of last year’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix still linger for Verstappen. Can they re-emerge as the team to beat at a circuit where they struggled twelve months ago? It’s possible, but far from guaranteed.
Midfield Watch
Mercedes has slipped back on outright performance but Baku’s traction zones and the option of running more wing could make them stronger than in Monza. Expect a steadier, more competitive showing.
Aston Martin looks less suited on paper. Alonso’s craft should still see him into Q3 and the points, but the car is unlikely to match the straight-line punch of Williams, Sauber or Haas.
Williams impressed in Italy with Albon revealing they were briefly as quick as Ferrari and McLaren. They could again lead the midfield here.
Racing Bulls keep bagging points thanks to strong qualifying from Lawson or Hadjar, but Baku’s close walls and unforgiving layout could punish rookie mistakes.
Alpine is effectively in a holding pattern for 2026. Pierre Gasly has admitted as much, so don’t expect major surprises from the car. We’ll see what this weekend brings for them.
Paddock Queen’s Top-Five Predictions for the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Pole Position: Charles Leclerc
Race:
1) Lando Norris
2) Oscar Piastri
3) Max Verstappen
4) Charles Leclerc
5) Lewis Hamilton
I’m expecting a high-stakes, strategy-heavy race with plenty of tension right up to the flag. What about you? How do you see the 2025 Azerbaijan Grand Prix playing out? Drop your predictions in the comments!
Before the lights go out, you can also boost your racing know-how with my latest article here or catch up with Friday action at Baku here.
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